I finally put some thoughts I’ve been thinking over the last 5 years in to a concise video, which felt good.
I see a lot of people who are strongly confident that human extinction would be bad, and a few who are strongly confident that it would be good. I’m much less sure, and would like to offer some arguments in both directions. In particular, I’m not convinced that the net sentient experience in the future will be positive (from a total hedonic utilitarian perspective) even if we survive all the known existential and catastrophic threats. This is especially when we consider non-human and digital sentience.
The implication of this for me is that I have switched my focus from trying to reduce existential risk to trying make sure that the future, if there is one for sentient life, is net positive (more happiness than suffering).